Hydrogen electrolyser demand — the nickel consumption curve

The demand case for Class 1 nickel rests on three sinks: EV cells, electrolysers, and aerospace / niche. Of the three, electrolyser demand is the least appreciated and arguably the most sensitive to supply — because electrolyser OEMs have limited substitution options for high-purity nickel in their cell stacks.

Why electrolysers consume nickel the way they do

Both alkaline and PEM electrolyser architectures use nickel in the electrode stacks. Alkaline electrolysers use Raney nickel or nickel mesh at scale; PEM electrolysers typically use catalyst-coated membranes where nickel appears in structural and interconnect layers. Nickel wire in particular has high surface-area characteristics that make it efficient as an electrode substrate for alkaline stacks at commercial scale.

The tonnage math

Rule-of-thumb industry figures — which vary by OEM — suggest 0.15 to 0.45 tonnes of high-purity nickel per MW of electrolyser capacity. IEA central-case electrolyser deployment projections run to ~95 GW cumulative by 2030 and ~380 GW by 2035. Even at the low end of the tonnage range, this implies ~14 kt of Class 1 nickel consumption by 2030 and ~55 kt by 2035, from electrolysers alone.

Supply can't scale as fast

Class 1 nickel supply is capacity-constrained. New primary Class 1 projects take 7–10 years from discovery to production. The existing Class 1 capacity base grows perhaps 3–4% annually. Against a demand growth of 12–18% (blending EV cells, electrolysers, aerospace), the deficit compounds structurally.

Why NP1 specifically

Electrolyser OEMs specify NP1-grade or equivalent because even trace impurities (iron, sulphur, copper) degrade cell efficiency measurably. The form factor requirement — often drawn wire for electrode meshes — narrows the qualified supplier base further. The ALKN-backed inventory is eligible for this use category; most Class 1 cathode stock is not directly usable without further drawing, which is where the form-factor premium comes from.